4. Change Management
The pre-mortem
Kill the failure before launch
Use when
Any major launch, program, or policy, in the last meeting before commitment
- 1
Assume failure
It is 12 months out and this failed badly. Say it as fact, not risk.
- 2
Write reasons
Everyone writes their failure story alone, two minutes, no discussion.
- 3
Read them all
Each person reads one reason nobody has said yet. Round-robin.
- 4
Rank and design
Pick the three likeliest. Build a countermeasure into the plan for each.
- 5
Name the tell
For each, the early signal you would see. Assign someone to watch for it.
“Prospective hindsight raises correct identification of failure reasons by roughly 30 percent.”
How to use it
Twenty minutes, run before commitment, not after approval. The silent write is the mechanism: it removes the social cost of being the person who doubts. Watch-out: without the rank-and-design step it is just venting.
Card details
- Model type
- Sequence
- Origin status
- Established
- Content last reviewed
- 28 July 2026
Origin
EstablishedGary Klein, Harvard Business Review, 2007.