4. Change Management
Change execution risk score (DICE)
Scoring change risk before launch
DICE was developed at Boston Consulting Group. Named here to identify the model. No affiliation or endorsement.
Use when
Deciding whether an initiative is set up to land, before money is spent
- 1
D: Duration
Time between milestone reviews. Under two months scores best; long gaps kill momentum.
- 2
I: Integrity
Capability of the delivery team and its leader. Named people, protected time.
- 3
C: Commitment ×2
Visible executive backing and genuine front-line buy-in. Both, separately scored.
- 4
E: Effort
Extra workload on top of the day job. Above 10 percent extra, risk climbs fast.
“7–14 win zone. 14–17 worry. Over 17: woe zone, redesign before launching.”
How to use it
Score each factor 1 (best) to 4 (worst), weight commitment as two items, and total. Built on 225 programs and applied to roughly 1,000. Use it as a gate, not a report card: a woe-zone score is an instruction to shorten review cycles, name a stronger owner, or cut scope before launch.
Card details
- Model type
- Sequence
- Origin status
- Established
- Content last reviewed
- 28 July 2026
Origin
EstablishedHarold Sirkin, Perry Keenan and Alan Jackson, Boston Consulting Group, Harvard Business Review, 2005.